Published on: 16 Feb, 2026 07:40

Indian markets opened the week on a cautious note, tracking mixed global cues and lingering IT sector pressures from AI disruption fears. While the India-US trade deal offered support, a subdued GIFTNifty and selective sectoral resilience in realty, defense, and banking set the tone for a range-bound session.

The Indian stock market opened the week on a cautious note amid mixed global cues and lingering concerns over AI-driven disruptions in the IT sector. Overnight, U.S. markets ended mixed following inflation data that reinforced expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, while Asian peers were largely flat due to holidays in mainland China. The Gift Nifty futures hovered around 25,465, signaling a mildly negative start for the Nifty 50, potentially opening around 25,400–25,450, down from Friday's close of 25,471.10. Pre-market indicators pointed to a range-bound session, with volatility likely elevated as investors digest the U.S.–India trade deal's implications and await Q3 earnings from key players like Ola Electric and Coal India.

Market sentiment remains neutral to bullish, buoyed by early signs of foreign inflows recovering post the interim trade agreement, which slashed U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to 18%. However, the Nifty IT index's 13.7% slump in 2026 so far—exacerbated by global tech sell-offs—continues to weigh on broader indices. Top themes today include real estate's resilience amid urban infrastructure boosts, defense stocks on policy tailwinds, and selective buys in banking amid deregulation hopes. We found around 35 unique recommendations from credible sources, with standout calls on BEL (upgraded amid strong Q3), real estate plays like Phoenix Mills, and defensives like SBI Life. Overall, about 20–25 fresh calls were issued or updated today, focusing on sectors like banking, real estate, and industrials.

Section 1: Index Outlook

The Nifty 50 and Sensex are expected to consolidate amid global uncertainties, with immediate support at 25,100–25,200 and resistance at 25,700–26,000. Analysts anticipate range-bound trading unless foreign inflows accelerate further. Nomura projects the Nifty at 29,300 by end-2026, implying 15% upside from current levels, driven by cyclical recovery and earnings growth. However, short-term caution prevails due to IT weakness and potential tariff ripple effects.

Index Recommendation Target/Range Key Driver Source
Nifty 50 Neutral/Hold 25,200–25,800 Cyclical recovery post-trade deal; IT drag ET Markets
Sensex Neutral 82,000–84,000 Broader market rotation; fiscal stimulus hopes Moneycontrol
Bank Nifty Bullish 60,500–61,500 Deregulation tailwinds; rate cut expectations Business Standard
Nifty IT Bearish 40,000–42,000 AI disruption fears; global tech sell-off Reuters

Key drivers include resilient domestic growth (projected at 6.5% for FY26 by Nomura) and policy support, though AI overhang and U.S. GDP data later this week could influence sentiment.

Section 2: Sector-Wise Stock Picks

Banking & Financials

Banking stocks are in focus amid deregulation optimism and recovering inflows. Analysts highlight strong Q3 margins and loan growth.

  • **Bharat Electronics (BEL) [BEL.NS] – Buy, Target: ₹484 (upside 15%), Rationale: Robust defense orders and Q3 beat; expected EPS growth of 12%. Source: ICICI Securities.
  • **SBI Life Insurance [SBILIFE.NS] – Buy, Target: ₹1,800 (upside 10%), Rationale: Stable premiums amid life insurance demand; Q3 PAT up 20%. Source: Sumeet Bagadia, Choice Broking.
  • **HDFC Life [HDFCLIFE.NS] – Buy, Target: ₹740 (upside 8%), Rationale: Premium growth and policy tailwinds; multi-day hold. Source: Ganesh Dongre, Anand Rathi.
  • **Bajaj Finance [BAJFINANCE.NS] – Buy, Target: ₹8,500 (upside 12%), Rationale: Loan book expansion; Q3 revenue up 18%. Source: Sumeet Bagadia.

IT & Tech

IT remains under pressure from AI fears, but selective picks emerge.

  • **Info Edge (India) [NAUKRI.NS] – Buy, Target: ₹1,230 (upside 8%), Rationale: Recruitment recovery; Naukri.com user growth. Source: Ganesh Dongre.
  • **Tata Technologies [TATATECH.NS] – Buy, Target: ₹650 (upside 10%), Rationale: EV and aero engineering demand. Source: Ganesh Dongre.

Real Estate & Infrastructure

Real estate shines on urban capex and housing demand.

  • **Phoenix Mills [PHOENIX.NS] – Buy, Target: ₹1,895 (upside 12%), Rationale: Mall leasing uptick; Q3 occupancy at 95%. Source: Raja Venkatraman.
  • **Prestige Estates [PRESTIGE.NS] – Buy, Target: ₹1,450 (upside 10%), Rationale: Residential launches; Bengaluru focus. Source: Raja Venkatraman.
  • **Lodha Developers (Macrotech) [LODHA.NS] – Buy, Target: ₹1,200 (upside 12%), Rationale: Morning star pattern; strong Q3 bookings. Source: Hindu BusinessLine.

Industrials & Manufacturing

  • **Kirloskar Oil Engines [KIRLOSKAR.NS] – Buy, Target: ₹1,500 (upside 9%), Rationale: Demand in specialty oils; diversified model. Source: MarketSmith India.
  • **Apar Industries [APAR.NS] – Buy, Target: ₹10,000 (upside 5%), Rationale: Petroleum additives growth. Source: MarketSmith India.
  • **Eicher Motors [EICHERMOT.NS] – Buy, Target: ₹5,500 (upside 10%), Rationale: RE volumes; Q3 margin at 26.6%. Source: Sumeet Bagadia.

Other Picks

  • **State Bank of India (SBI) [SBIN.NS] – Buy, Target: ₹1,100 (upside 10%), Rationale: Loan growth; low NPAs. Source: Motilal Oswal.
  • **Bharti Airtel [BHARTIARTL.NS] – Buy, Target: ₹2,365 (upside 12%), Rationale: Data price hikes. Source: Motilal Oswal.
  • **HCL Tech [HCLTECH.NS] – Buy, Target: ₹2,150 (upside 8%), Rationale: AI services shift. Source: Motilal Oswal.

Target upsides are calculated from Friday's closes. Deduplication ensured no repeats from overlapping sources.

Sector Avg. Target Upside (%) Top Rationale
Banking 10–15 Deregulation, inflows
Real Estate 10–12 Urban capex
IT 8–10 Selective recovery

Section 3: Global & Thematic Insights

Global brokerages like Nomura and Morgan Stanley remain optimistic on India, citing trade deal benefits and AI value chain opportunities despite near-term IT headwinds. Macquarie sees value in midcaps, while UBS highlights cross-border views on infrastructure. BSE/NSE announcements noted analyst meets but no major regulatory nuggets today. Thematically, focus on AI-resilient plays and tariff beneficiaries like manufacturing.

Conclusion & Disclaimer

Overall sentiment leans neutral-bullish, with potential for rebound if IT stabilizes. Investors should watch BEL and real estate for upside. This is a pre-market snapshot—updates may evolve. This aggregated data is for informational purposes; consult an advisor. Not investment advice.

Sources & Citations

  1. Livemint (various articles).
  2. Moneycontrol.
  3. Economic Times.
  4. Reuters.
  5. Business Standard.
 

 

 
 



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