How Much Indian Economy Will Grow In 2020 And 2021

2020 was a unique year in world history. Due to pandemic caused by CCP virus, the whole world went into lockdown. Movement people were restricted that caused economic activity to halt. The whole world suffered an economic recession. IMF publishes a report on economic growth in the world. The report is titled World Economic Outlook.  

For the calendar year 2020, India is estimated to grow by -8% as per IMF. The projection GDP growth rate of India for 2021 and 2022 are 11.5% and 6.8% respectively.  

Key points from the IMF projection:

• The world economy is estimated to grow by -3.5% in 2020 and post a positive growth rate of 5.5% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022.
• The United State will post a negative GDP growth in 2020 of -3.4% and positive GDP growth rate of 5.1% in 2021 and 3.1% in 2022.
• Euro area is estimated post a negative GDP growth rate of -7.2% in 2020 and a positive GDP growth rate of 4.2% in 2021 and 3.6% in 2022.
• China is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2020, 8.1% in 2021 and 5.6% in 2022.

Now we have a few doubt on IMF projections:

1. When Europe as a whole is still under lockdown and facing the third wave of pandemic how they are expected to decline by only -7.2% in 2020 but India is expected to decline by -8%.
2. Impact of Covid will not go till the second quarter of the calendar year 2021. So I don't expect the Euro area and the USA to post such a high growth rate in 2021. 
3. IMF uses official Chinese economic numbers for its projection. We highly doubt chinses economic numbers. 

We expect India GDP will decline by around -6.5% in the calendar year 2020 and grow by around 12.5% in the calendar year 2021.