Published on: 02 Dec, 2022 14:06

  • Indian share market has rallied to an all-time high. However other major share markets are nowhere close to the peak. Everyone has one question. Will this rally continue? 
  • All brokerage houses are suggesting that the market will even move further up. 

The Indian share market has rallied to an all-time high. However other major share markets are nowhere close to the peak. Everyone has one question. Will this rally continue? All brokerage houses are suggesting that the market will even move further up. 

Historically Indian share market had a high correlation with the international share market, but now this correlation seems to be broken. Year to date Nifty 50 is up by approximately 6% however the USA S&P500 index is down by 15% (YTD).

 

 


If we look at global economic conditions one can safely say the outlook does not look good. 

Let's divide the global economy into four clusters,

1. USA +( Canada and Mexico)(yellow)

2. EU +UK,(red)

3. China and, (red)

4. Rest of the world (yellow)

If we use red (bad), yellow (ok) and green (good) as indicators for economic conditions two clusters will fall under the yellow category and two in red. India as the stand-alone economy will fall under in green category currently if conditions in USA + cluster turn to red, India can quickly move to a yellow category, and its impact will be felt on the stock market.



US market experts say the federal reserve has already tightened interest rates too much and will cause a recession in the USA, as inflation will decrease in the next couple of months. 

from  "leadlagreport"

Historically, a pivot in the Federal Funds rate is BEARISH FOR STOCKS.

Stop with these stupid narratives. 

The Fed pivots mostly BEFORE major drawdowns in the S&P 500." Chart is sourced from his twitter feed please follow he is great. 





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